Who is Israel Fooling? Loopholes to a Complete Colony Freeze: From 'Natural Growth' to 'Building Upward, Not Outward'

Israel has repeatedly sought formulas by which it could continue building settlements while giving the appearance of restricting settlement construction. Since the Mitchell Report's call for a "freeze on all settlement activity, including natural growth", the search for a formula that would allow Israel to continue building settlements while appearing to comply with the Mitchell Report has resulted in the proposal of a number of loopholes to the spirit of a complete settlement freeze. Listed below are a few of the loopholes Israel has sought or is currently seeking:

1. Natural Growth

   "Natural Growth" is a politically expedient term created by Israel to allow it to disguise its efforts to "thicken" and expand its settlements.

   - Settlement growth is not "natural". Israel's policy encourages settlement in the Occupied Palestinian Territories through extensive and generous government subsidies. The Israeli governments have actively encouraged migration into settlements through various incentives that include, inter alia, business and housing grants, subsidized mortgages, free schooling and 7% income tax breaks.

   - 60% of Israeli construction in the Occupied Palestinian Territories is state funded, compared to 25% within Israel

   - Due in large part to financial and other incentives, Israel's rate of population growth in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, which includes birth, immigration, and other factors such as market demand, is approximately 3-4 times greater than within Israel (8-10% as compared to 2-3%.

   - Even if Israel continued to maintain its subsidized natural growth rate, Israel could freeze construction for 2-5 years, and would be required to demolish apartments based on existing units empty and available in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. It is estimated that between 10,000 to 20,000 settlement housing units are empty and available.

   The 1992 Agreement between then Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and the US government, in which Israel agreed to limit its expansion of settlements to "natural growth," resulted in unprecedented rates of construction and growth in the settlements. Rabin's rate was higher than previously undertaken in the 26 years of occupation by the Israeli government.

   In accordance with the same understanding, Prime Minister Netanyahu used "natural growth" to increase housing starts by 100% in 1998 to 4,210, the highest numbers since Ariel Sharon was Minister of Housing in 1991-1992.

   Following in his predecessor's footsteps, Prime Minister Barak approved Netanyahu's plan for 11,000 new apartments and issued tenders for approximately 2,511 housing starts.

   Cumulatively, as a result of this "natural growth" policy, since 1992 Israel has doubled its settlement population in the West Bank, excluding expansion the expansion that has occurred in East Jerusalem, to 200,000 settlers and has confiscated approximately 215,700 dunums (approximately 54,000 acres). Settlements such as Bittar Illit, Mitzpe Rahal, and Givat Ze'ev among others, have more than tripled in geographical size since 1993.

2. II. No New Settlements

   - Israel does not need to build new settlements in order to meet its needs. Previous governments--both Labor and Likud--appear already to have approved all the master plans for the settlements. A master plan for a settlement can be many times larger than the current built-up area of the settlement. Consequently, Israel can construct-and has constructed-new housing units within these master plans and claim that these units do not constitute "new" settlements.

   - Outposts (caravans) are not covered under this proposal and could serve as the basis for future expansion for any existing settlements or any rogue settler activities. Israel considers them as "new neighborhoods. To date, the Sharon government has established approximately 15 new caravan outposts, many of them more than 700 -1,500 meters from their "mother settlement."

3. "No Additional Land Expropriation" or "No Additional Land Expropriation for Construction"

   - This proposal does not distinguish between expropriation and confiscation. Through its military orders, Israel has already expropriated all of or most of the land it seeks for its settlements and by-pass roads. However, it has not yet implemented these orders through confiscation. Thus, although this proposal implies that no additional Palestinian land will be taken or homes or agricultural fields destroyed, in fact, home demolitions and confiscation of land could continue.

   - Israel's declared "abandoned land" or "state land" may not be included in this proposal. Under laws of Israeli occupation, Palestinians who left the area of the West Bank before, during or after the time of the 1967 war can be declared absentee, thereby declaring land to be "abandoned." Under illegal laws of Israeli occupation, Palestinian land that was not registered under private ownership as of 1967 is declared to be state land. Israel can continue to take or prohibit use by Palestinians of their own unregistered land by declaring it to be abandoned or by excluding state land in this proposal

   - Israel could increase its settlement population and continue construction substantially, even if it confined its building to the master plans currently in effect for the settlements. The built-up areas including settlements in East Jerusalem constitute approximately 1.6 - 2% of the entire West Bank, and the master plans of existing settlement far exceed this amount.

   - Under this proposal Israel could expropriate land to continue building its 400 kilometers of by-pass roads. The Sharon government recently announced plans to build the Ring Road around East Jerusalem.

   - Under this proposal, Israel could continue expropriating land--or preventing Palestinian access to land--on the basis of providing "security" for its settlements.

   - This proposal may not exclude land taken by settlers for agricultural purposes, where no construction would be required.

4. Building Upward, Not Outward

   - Any additional population growth is contributing to "creating facts on the ground" that prejudice final status talks. Moreover, an increase in the number of settlers requires additional infrastructure needs such as roads, electricity and access to adequate water resources. Attempting to meet these needs for the settlers would come at the expense of Palestinian needs and resources for future development.